Saturday is my first race is 2 years, and I actually a little nervous. It is a 10k around Central Park, a course I know well, and a race I have run several times before. I just have no idea what to expect for a time or how to set a pace. My treadmill times have been slow (running about 8:50 miles). But I know I always run faster outdoors than on a treadmill. My last several outdoor runs have been in neighborhood of 8:30/mile pace. Everyone suggests (and I notice too) that race time is faster than training time. So, the "race fairy" gives you about 0:30 to a minute per mile. I rarely count on the race fairy though, and try to plan based on a hard workout. That makes me think low 8:00 miles are a realistic goal.
And then I went back and looked at my previous race times. I have never run a race at more than 8:57/mile, even in my most out of shape races. Three years ago, with about the same weight and level of fitness (maybe less), I ran 7:57. Hmmmm. And it seems like it rains for everyone of these races, so some off those times include wet clothes, shoes and general misery.
This is all paralysis from too much data. I should just go with what feels right. The only problem with the "go with it" plan is that the people at the front of an NYRR race go out fast. And if I follow (which I always do), I will crash and burn come mile 4, just like the last time I ran this race in 2010.
Ok, so lets hope the race fairy shows up and I make 8:00 miles. Have fun, don't walk, find the groove, and let it come. And hope it doesn't rain.
Good luck to everyone this weekend!